Nobody Owns Your Vote

Polling snapshots, not predictions

Paxton vs. Talarico: what the polls show.

Polls explain why this race deserves attention. They cannot decide whether either candidate deserves the job—and they are not predictions.

This page lists only polls this project has reviewed, with field context and uncertainty intact. It is deliberately not a forecast, an average, or a horse-race dashboard.

Reviewed polls of the 2026 Texas Senate race

Fact · dated snapshot

The Texas Tribune reported on June 23, 2026 that a Texas Politics Project poll found Ken Paxton leading James Talarico 43% to 42%, within a 3.5-point margin of error. The ballot question also included Libertarian Ted Brown, so it was not a two-candidate test. [1]

Fact · dated snapshot

Siena Research Institute posted a June 30, 2026 summary of a New York Times/Siena poll reporting a 47% to 47% tie. [2] The Washington Post reported that the poll surveyed 656 likely Texas voters, found 6% undecided, and carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. [3]

Evidence reviewed through August 1, 2026. New polling is added only with field dates, sample information, sponsorship context, and uncertainty intact.

How to read a poll without letting it vote for you

Margin of error covers both candidates

A one-point lead inside a 3.5-point margin is a statistical tie, not a lead. Both reviewed polls describe races within their margins.

Check the dates, not just the numbers

A poll describes the days it was in the field. Events after those dates are not in the numbers.

Look at who was surveyed

Likely voters, registered voters, and adults are different populations. Sample size drives the margin of error.

Polls are not permission slips

A poll cannot tell you who deserves public power. That judgment belongs to you, and the evidence lives in the record, not the horse race.

The numbers say the race is close. The record says do your homework.

A close race raises the value of an independent judgment. That is what the rest of this project is for.

Sources

Sources for this page

  1. [1] · factThe Texas Tribune, "Ken Paxton and James Talarico are neck and neck in U.S. Senate race, new poll finds"

    Used for the June 23, 2026 report on one Texas Politics Project poll, including the 43% to 42% result, 3.5-point margin of error, and the inclusion of Libertarian Ted Brown in the ballot question.

    Reviewed

    Back to reference
  2. [2] · factSiena Research Institute, "New York Times/Siena Poll of Texas Voters"

    Used for the June 30, 2026 Siena summary of a New York Times/Siena poll reporting Talarico 47% and Paxton 47%.

    Reviewed

    Back to reference
  3. [3] · historical/current eventThe Washington Post, "Texas Senate race is dead even, poll finds"

    Used for reporting on the New York Times/Siena poll sample of 656 likely Texas voters, the 6% undecided share, and the plus or minus 4.5 percentage point margin of sampling error.

    Reviewed

    Back to reference